The month of September is always the most active time for hurricane development. Right on schedule a spasm of tropical activity is cooking to the east of my neighborhood. You can see Tropical Storm Ike bearing down on the island chain. Things can be very tricky in the forecasting department. As shown in Gustav forecasting, the hurricane specialists were good at forecasting storm tracks but shaky on intensity. What can you do. Science is pretty good but still anything passed 72 hour forecasts are highly suspect. Ike is forecast to pass from 100 to 300 miles north of Puerto Rico. The forecasters have a high degree of confidence with this track. When confusion exists, such as with Hannah, which took a 90 degree turn to the south, the forecasters will say ambiguity exists. So far so good, plus Salinas sits about 90 miles from the north shore of PR, with large mountains in between. This provides a little more cushion. As always, Semper Paratus, I'm ready to move to the mangroves as needed.
Tropical Storm Josephine formed this morning near the Cape Verde Islands. It is very far away and has some cooler patches of water and windshear to deal with in a few days which could slow it up. However the track appears to be following a similar path as Ike. So I won't be doing much over the next couple of weeks except watching and discussing weather with my fellow cruisers. We spend alot of time speculating. So far I feel fortunate, Puerto Rico has been spared and am optimistic we'll get through this season unscathed. Although I have learned about myself that I may not be geared to be in the hurricane belt during hurricane season regardless of the availability of mangroves. I think next h-season next year will be spent outside the hurricane belt. More later.
Capt Chris
|
No comments:
Post a Comment