Sunday, September 21, 2008

Tropical Weather

I should be freakin out. A tropical depression is forming this morning 70 miles to the south of Salinas. A Tropical depression as we all know is the pre-cursor to a hurricane. The satellite photo certainly looks very ominous. However according to the experts the circulation that is apparent in the photo is in mid levels of the atmosphere thus far. As a system becomes more organized the atmospheric turning works its way to the surface. All things being equal, that is the point when wind velocity starts to increase. Also when circulation makes it to the surface and is deemed "closed" it is then upgraded from an "invest" to a tropical depression. Next stage would be a named tropical storm. Things need to monitored closely as TS Fay skipped the depression stage and went to a tropical storm just about instantly.

So the sweat factor is minimal as the system has some hostile environmental factors to overcome plus most of the weather models predict development north of Puerto Rico. However folks on the east coast need to watch out. This is the time of year when tropical systems can interact with low pressure system coming across Canada. The soup that breed the Perfect Storm in October 91.

So right now Puerto Rico is under serious rain and thunderstorm assault. Although it seems more rain than anything. So far we don't expect any thunderstorms to the severity of Hanna or Ike.

In other news, I'm supposed to head to the west coast town of Aguadilla to house sit for Kelley and Bill while they do some skulking. So hopefully I can spend the next week and a half living in a house, surfing and running with there two dogs down the beach. Then again, the weather could turn and I could end up swatting mosquitos while lashed into the mangroves. So many unknowables and everyone thinks cruising is so sexy.

Capt Chris

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